United-Welcome
0x2afd0dfad042ef302aad5d4480602d1a9250deb4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$464.48
Total PnL
$348.85
Realised
$623.89
Win rate
81%
132 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Plasma reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?
137 shares @ 28.3¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.85
$11.97
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
65 shares @ 4.8¢·now 23.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$15.03
$11.94
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
66 shares @ 2.0¢·now 12.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.48
$7.15
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $10,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
20 shares @ 6.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.07
$6.85
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 2000.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?
168 shares @ 5.5¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.27
$-1.87
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
8 shares @ 58.0¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.34
$1.68
- YES
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 10.2¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.89
$2.01
- NO
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?
8 shares @ 31.7¢·now 68.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.76
$3.08
- NO
Will Charles Oliveira become UFC champion in 2026?
7 shares @ 70.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.65
$0.61
- YES
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026?
12 shares @ 7.8¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.47
$4.54
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?$3.94Jul 28, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?$4.46Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnit FDV above $200M one day after launch?$0.11Jul 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?$0.59Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?$0.10Jul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?$0.12Jul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Linda Noskova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$5.09Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?$4.71Jul 28, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linda Noskova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$4.99Jul 28, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?$3.11Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?$4.00Jul 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027?$0.85Jul 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYDreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch?$3.56Jul 28, 12:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sergei Pavlovich become UFC champion in 2026?$3.88Jul 28, 12:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamaru Usman become UFC champion in 2026?$0.51Jul 28, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belal Muhammad become UFC champion in 2026?$0.17Jul 28, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026$0.12Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026$0.90Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?$5.00Jul 28, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 132 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
132 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 132 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.