o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Probability
16¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 16¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14774.1h
- 14:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 20¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).