Obama divorce before 2027?
Probability
11¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$42.36
Liquidity
$10.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 11¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5967h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $10.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5967.2h
- 08:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5967h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.0pp at 19:00 (to 9¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 20:00 · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 19:00 · -3.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.