Bewitched-Merchant
0xb2539c6e857372d90bc648b59498cb6e5ec42d38
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-298.96
Realised
$14.87
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
535 shares @ 82.1¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$459.83
$20.83
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
533 shares @ 60.6¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$327.70
$4.70
- NO
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
706 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$116.47
$-3.53
- NO
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?
327 shares @ 33.6¢·now 35.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$114.55
$4.55
- NO
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
136 shares @ 80.9¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.42
$-0.58
- NO
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
113 shares @ 90.8¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.31
$6.31
- NO
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
135 shares @ 80.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$106.95
$-1.05
- NO
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
166 shares @ 68.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$103.69
$-9.31
- NO
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
111 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.54
$0.54
- NO
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
109 shares @ 83.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$89.61
$-1.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$10.00Jul 4, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$5.16Jul 4, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$5.05Jul 4, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$10.00Jul 4, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 4, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 4, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$30.00Jul 4, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYÁngela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?$11.15Jul 4, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?$10.15Jul 4, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYRihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?$5.08Jul 4, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYHailey Bieber pregnant in 2026?$3.02Jul 4, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYDua Lipa pregnant in 2026?$5.03Jul 4, 10:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?$20.14Jul 3, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$21.17Jul 3, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$21.17Jul 3, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$10.18Jul 3, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$10.18Jul 3, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$50.87Jul 3, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$104.93Jul 3, 17:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $26.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 12:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 10:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.