PGA Championship: Hole in One?
Probability
19¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-18.0pp
24h Vol
$32.17
Liquidity
$149.24
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 18pp over 24h
Now 19¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 30h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 30 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 18, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 30.4h
- 17:38SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 30h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-18.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.5pp at 13:00 (to 17¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 17:00 · -28.5pp → 19¢
- 15:00 · -26.0pp → 19¢
- 13:00 · -34.5pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records a hole-in-one at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a hole in one recorded during official tournament rounds will be considered. No hole in one recorded during practice rounds, the Par 3 contest, or any other period of play will be considered. If the tournament is postponed, this market will remain open until the tournament is completed. If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, or postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Championship (pgachampionship.com/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
pga championshipReason
PGA Championship golf major — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "PGA Championship: Hole in One?"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 17:38:25 GMT, YES is priced at 19% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -18.0pp in the last 24 hours, -4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$32.17 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $149.24. Spread between best bid and best ask: 22.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.