MacroExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?

Probability

75¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$5.07

Liquidity

$67.93

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d
1007550250
75¢
May 7, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 13:21 UTC
updated 13:21:25 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T13-21Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 28.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 13:21Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • May 12, 21:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 40h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at 14:00 (to 75¢).

Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · -11.5pp → 75¢
  • 23:00 · -11.5pp → 75¢
  • 21:00 · -11.5pp → 75¢
  • 20:00 · -11.5pp → 75¢
  • 19:00 · -12.0pp → 75¢
  • 17:00 · -12.0pp → 75¢
  • 15:00 · -12.0pp → 75¢
  • 14:00 · -12.0pp → 75¢
updated 13:21:25 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 13:21:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, Pixelworks is estimated to release earnings on May 12, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Pixelworks’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.14 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pixelworks reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.14 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Pixelworks releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nasdaq

Reason

Nasdaq index — Macro / Markets.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 13:21:25 GMT, YES is priced at 75% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://seekingalpha.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.07 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $67.93. Spread between best bid and best ask: 28.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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