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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?

Probability

59¢

1h

-1.5pp

24h

-9.5pp

24h Vol

$33.17

Liquidity

$2.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 59¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 25.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6014.1h

    LOW
  • 14:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 67¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (25.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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