Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-15.0pp
24h Vol
$6.9K
Liquidity
$78.7K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 15pp over 24h
Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $6.9k traded against $78.7k of visible liquidity (0.09× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 23¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1322.7h
Price movement
-15.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.