Will Chiefs win?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+40.0pp
24h Vol
$4.8K
Liquidity
$11.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+61.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 40pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 165.0h
- 12:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+40.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +36.5pp at 12:32 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 64 hourly moves
- 12:32 · +36.5pp → 100¢
- 10:00 · -19.5pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · -16.0pp → 62¢
- 3d ago · -16.0pp → 59¢
- 3d ago · -16.0pp → 58¢
- 3d ago · -16.0pp → 57¢
- 4d ago · +17.0pp → 74¢
- 4d ago · +15.0pp → 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 8 2026 If Chiefs wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
chiefsReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "chiefs" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Chiefs win?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 12:32:48 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +40.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +61.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T09:35:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://super.rugby/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://super.rugby/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
