Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 28?
Probability
54¢
1h
-44.2pp
24h
+12.5pp
24h Vol
$2.6K
Liquidity
$12.43
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 54¢; -44.2pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+12.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5- 98¢+0.2
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $412.5K
- 0¢0.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $342.9K
- 1¢0.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $324.4K
- 1¢-0.1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $321.4K
- 1¢-0.3
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $280.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, May 28, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, May 28, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
russell 2000Reason
Russell 2000 index — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 28?"?
As of Thu, 28 May 2026 20:49:54 GMT, YES is priced at 54% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +12.5pp in the last 24 hours, -44.2pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.43. Spread between best bid and best ask: 92.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.