Pleasing-Elm
0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$362.01
Realised
$953.04
Win rate
100%
127 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
2570 shares @ 0.2¢·now 12.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$331.47
$326.19
- YES
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
2102 shares @ 0.2¢·now 6.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$129.30
$125.08
- YES
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2788 shares @ 0.8¢·now 2.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$58.55
$36.94
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
2898 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.05
$40.09
- YES
Will the Tampa Bay Rays hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?
1111 shares @ 0.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$44.44
$43.33
- YES
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
1166 shares @ 0.4¢·now 3.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$40.81
$36.05
- YES
Will Kawhi play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?
1369 shares @ 0.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$33.55
$29.73
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?
2930 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$30.76
$16.11
- YES
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
1092 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.6¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$28.94
$4.97
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
4370 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$28.40
$17.28
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?$3.71Jul 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?$3.33Jul 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$11.76Jul 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$1.45Jul 31, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 27-August 2?$12.00Jul 31, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the July meeting?$27.71Jul 31, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$6.29Jul 31, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$9.50Jul 31, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.45Jul 31, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Burgas host Eurovision 2027?$11.83Jul 31, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?$11.89Jul 31, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?$11.89Jul 31, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$1.05Jul 31, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?$1.93Jul 31, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$11.11Jul 31, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$11.25Jul 31, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?$0.75Jul 31, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$11.94Jul 31, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?$3.33Jul 31, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$8.60Jul 31, 18:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 127 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
127 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 17:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 18:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 127 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.