Will Leinster win?
Probability
64¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$654.13
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (54.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 64¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 54.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (54.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 260.8h
- 19:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+7.0pp over the last 24h, now 64¢.
Biggest hourly move: +43.5pp at 1d ago (to 91¢).
Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
- 1d ago · +43.5pp → 91¢
- 1d ago · +39.0pp → 87¢
- 1d ago · +36.0pp → 85¢
- 1d ago · +34.5pp → 84¢
- 1d ago · +33.0pp → 83¢
- 1d ago · +31.5pp → 82¢
- 1d ago · +28.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +27.5pp → 80¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9 2026 If Leinster wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.