Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?
Probability
19¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6016.5h
- 04:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6017h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:29PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 19¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 15¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).