S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.2pp
24h
+54.4pp
24h Vol
$195.6K
Liquidity
$15.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 54pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.2pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 12.3× turnover
$195.6k traded against $15.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 3h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $15.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 2.8h
- 17:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h.
Price movement
+54.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.9pp at 14:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +49.7pp → 100¢
- 14:00 · +49.9pp → 100¢
- 12:00 · +47.6pp → 98¢
- 11:00 · +45.5pp → 96¢
- 09:00 · +29.5pp → 81¢
- 07:00 · +30.5pp → 82¢
- 06:00 · +28.0pp → 80¢
- 05:00 · +28.5pp → 80¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 1 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 1 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
s&p 500Reason
S&P 500 equity-index market — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:11:58 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +54.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.2pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$195.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $198.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $15.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.