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GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?

Probability

23¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$3.57

Liquidity

$18.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5988.1h

    LOW
  • 11:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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