Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$3.57
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.1h
- 11:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).