The International 2026: Comeback Against Mega Creeps
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-12.0pp
24h Vol
$22.88
Liquidity
$101.05
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 41¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 46¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task The International 2026: Comeback Against Mega Creeps State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief The International 2026: Comeback Against Mega Creeps State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-12.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -16.5pp at 11:00 (to 41¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 11:00 · -16.5pp → 41¢
- 09:00 · -4.5pp → 53¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a team wins any completed game after the opposing team has spawned mega creeps at The International 2026 (TI 2026) Dota 2 tournament, held August 13–23, 2026 in Shanghai, China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All official games played as part of The International 2026 count toward this market, including the group stage, playoff/main event, and any tiebreaker games that produce a result. Games that are not completed — including forfeits, technical remakes that are replayed, or games with no recorded winner — do not count, even if mega creeps spawned during them. Regional and open qualifier games played prior to the main tournament do not count. If at least one qualifying comeback occurs in any completed game at the tournament, this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon the conclusion of that game being confirmed by the resolution sources. If the tournament concludes without any qualifying comeback, this market will resolve to "No". If the tournament is cancelled, or is postponed such that the tournament is not completed and final game data is not available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com), using its per-game barracks and winner data for The International 2026 event. A consensus of credible reporting or publicly available match data may also be used where the primary source is incomplete.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
the internationalReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "the international" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "The International 2026: Comeback Against Mega Creeps"?
As of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 11:17:56 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -12.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$22.88 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $68.35. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $101.05. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.