PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Probability

81¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$630.27

Liquidity

$13.9K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 16:00May 1, 2026, 15:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 81¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 704.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 01:00 (to 79¢).

Show top 8 of 56 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · +10.0pp → 81¢
  • 06:00 · -10.0pp → 79¢
  • 04:00 · -9.0pp → 79¢
  • 01:00 · +28.5pp → 79¢
  • 2d ago · -22.0pp → 64¢
  • 2d ago · -21.0pp → 64¢
  • 2d ago · -19.5pp → 64¢
  • 3d ago · -13.5pp → 71¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventTrump declassifies new UFO files by...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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