Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/trump-sentenced-to-between-36-and-47-months-prison-time renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/trump-sentenced-to-between-36-and-47-months-prison-time/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 11, 2024Closed

Creator

Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?

Probability

0¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 11, 2024
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

No price history available

updated 12:31:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T12-31Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 11, 2024
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved

Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official government information

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.

updated 12:31:57 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 12:31:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 36 (inclusive) months and 47 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No". If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:31:57 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 11, 2024 (2024-07-11T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $768.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

0xa5ef…2966254.9K

Open on Polymarket