PoliticsExpires Jan 31, 2026Closed
Creator

Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?

Probability

1h

-0.2pp

24h

-1.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 31, 2026
UMA status
resolved
Resolution source
Primary
State Department
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.7pp 7d
No price history available
updated 02:19:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T02-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved
Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: State Department

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Trump's travel ban removed by January 31? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Trump's travel ban removed by January 31? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow
No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.
updated 02:19:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 02:19:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur: - The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country - A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country - Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country - A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions - Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers The following do not count as a country being removed: - Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent) - Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers - Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action - Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned) Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:19:45 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -0.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 31, 2026 (2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.