Lawful-Relationship
0xb5aa80fc3ebec3317e2a5586f36f85781465c200
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$139.43
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$560.37
Win rate
76%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$46.50
$3.00
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
35 shares @ 70.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.25
$8.60
- YES
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
200 shares @ 11.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$15.00
$-7.40
- YES
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?
182 shares @ 12.2¢·now 7.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.59
$-8.70
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
30 shares @ 53.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.05
$-5.85
- YES
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
16 shares @ 22.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$9.69
$6.28
- YES
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 6.7¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$6.65
$-8.35
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.70
$-0.30
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
1500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?$50.00Jul 9, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$60.00Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?$46.50Jul 6, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?$50.00Jul 1, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$50.00Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$60.00Jun 24, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$32.80Jun 24, 01:02 UTC
- REWARD$1.17Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$40.00Jun 22, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$0.72Jun 22, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$15.00Jun 22, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$10.12Jun 22, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$4.88Jun 22, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.00Jun 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$2.26Jun 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$5.00Jun 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$10.22Jun 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$9.91Jun 22, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$90.00Jun 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$31.00Jun 22, 10:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
58 closed markets, 76% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $19.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 03:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 02:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.