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BusinessExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April?

Probability

91¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-3.4pp

24h Vol

$28.72

Liquidity

$3.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:36
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 91¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 11.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 126.4h

    LOW
  • 13:36Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.2pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 3.2pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 3.2pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 5.9pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 4.8pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.2pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.4pp

    to 80¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.9pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.4pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 82¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 82¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.2pp

    to 80¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 80¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.4pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.1pp

    to 80¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.4pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -22.2pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -21.2pp

    to 64¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -20.1pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -19.6pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (11.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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