Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?
Probability
24¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$77.23
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-28.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 123.1h
- 16:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 23¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 24¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 22¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 34¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 22¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 33¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 25¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 25¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 91¢-5.2pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $330 end of April?
Business · Vol $5.42
- 92¢-1.9pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April?
Business · Vol $14.72
- 17¢+5.0pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April?
Business · Vol $27.14
- 12¢+4.0pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April?
Business · Vol $1.88
- 5¢+1.6pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?
Business · Vol $40.00
- 99¢-0.6pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 end of April?
Business · Vol $214.87
- 100¢+0.9pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April?
Business · Vol $426.20
- 87¢-3.0pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of April?
Business · Vol $8.84
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.