Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-15.0pp
24h Vol
$1.88
Liquidity
$616.82
Probability (last 7 days)
-29.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 15pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 126.7h
- 13:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:15PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 12¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 12¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 12¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 12¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 12¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 12¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 12¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 12¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.0pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.5pp
to 7¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 7¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).