SportsExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Probability

56¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.4K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Link
ufc.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+6.0pp 7d
1007550250
54¢
May 25, 2026, 10:00 UTCJun 1, 2026, 09:47 UTC
updated 08:37:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T08-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 7, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 91.4h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.

Biggest hourly move: -16.5pp at May 31, 20:00 UTC (to 34¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • Jun 1, 09:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • Jun 1, 08:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • Jun 1, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • Jun 1, 06:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • Jun 1, 05:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • Jun 1, 04:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • May 31, 21:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 43¢
  • May 31, 20:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 34¢
updated 08:37:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:37:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)
Category · Sports

Market Description

Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Bruno Silva and Édgar Cháirez at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, scheduled for June 6, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Bruno Silva and Édgar Cháirez at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, scheduled for June 6, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: “Over 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. “Under 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.” If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond June 20, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "O/U 2.5 Rounds"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:37:37 GMT, YES is priced at 56% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +6.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.41. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket