Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$64.96
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 172h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 172.1h
- 23:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 172h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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O/U 0.5 Rounds
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O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
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O/U 2.5 Rounds
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Junior Tafa and Kevin Christian at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.