U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$18.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $18.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 102.8h
- 17:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.