US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

2. 2

   Wide spread — 15.4¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

3. 3

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

4. 4

   UMA status: disputed

   An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Somaliland as an independent state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the U.S. government's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.