Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-9.0pp
24h Vol
$210.50
Liquidity
$343.82
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 9¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 14¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 146.0h
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 8¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 8¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 19¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/WhiteHouseOfficial government source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).