Will 2 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 23pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve according to the number of Supreme Court Justices who voted in favor of the petitioner (Donald J. Trump) in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A justice will be considered to have voted in favor of the petitioner if, according to the official Supreme Court ruling, that justice concurred in a judgment that grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner or dissented from a judgment that grants none of the relief requested against the petitioner. Further details are provided below: A justice must participate in the case and support a position aligned with granting relief to the petitioner to qualify. If the Supreme Court's final judgment grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner, all justices who joined the majority opinion, wrote or joined concurring opinions, or concurred in the judgment alone will count. A justice who concurred in part and dissented in part will count only if their concurrence includes a vote to grant the petitioner some relief. If the petitioner loses in the Supreme Court’s final judgment, all justices who dissented from the judgment and whose dissent, if adopted, would have granted some or all of the relief the petitioner sought, will count. If the Supreme Court affirms the previous ruling in part and reverses the previous ruling in part, any justice whose vote, opinion, or dissent supports any portion of the judgment that grants relief to the petitioner will count. If no majority opinion exists but a judgment is issued, all justices who concurred in the judgment in favor of the petitioner, regardless of whether they joined the plurality, will count. Justices who concurred in the judgment against the petitioner will not count. Unless otherwise noted in official information from the Supreme Court, unsigned per curiam opinions will represent all participating justices. If any justices issue a dissent or note non-participation, they will not count. If an emergency order in favor of the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all participating justices will be counted excluding dissents and noted non-participation. If an emergency order against the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all dissenters who would have granted relief to the petitioner will count. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without decision, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest option, regardless of whether any justices issue separate opinions outside of a final judgment which express support for the petitioner. Justices who are recused or who do not participate will not count. Only the final votes recorded in the Supreme Court’s official slip opinion, summary disposition, or order will count. Leaked drafts, opinions, or other information will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.