Will Alexander Volkanovski fight Max Holloway next?
Probability
31¢
1h
-2.3pp
24h
+17.8pp
24h Vol
$101.00
Liquidity
$272.36
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UFC dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (62.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 18pp over 24h
Now 31¢; -2.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 62.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UFC dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (62.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 7036.2h
- 19:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+17.8pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: +37.7pp at 15:00 (to 60¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 19:00 · +18.5pp → 33¢
- 17:00 · +17.8pp → 38¢
- 15:00 · +37.7pp → 60¢
- 13:00 · -9.2pp → 13¢
- 11:00 · -9.2pp → 13¢
- 09:00 · -9.2pp → 13¢
- 07:00 · -9.2pp → 13¢
- 5d ago · -11.1pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Max Holloway is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Alexander Volkanovski fight Max Holloway next?"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 19:45:07 GMT, YES is priced at 31% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +17.8pp in the last 24 hours, -2.3pp in the last hour, and -2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 1, 2027 (2027-03-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$101.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $272.36. Spread between best bid and best ask: 62.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
