Youthful-Shower
0x060361681d73ef77e07105a3d9fefc26bec78f62
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$624.57
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$2.7K
Win rate
81%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
159 shares @ 70.4¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$153.64
$41.84
- NO
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
123 shares @ 88.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.69
$1.54
- NO
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
91 shares @ 72.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$90.26
$24.51
- NO
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
77 shares @ 57.4¢·now 89.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$68.93
$24.81
- NO
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
64 shares @ 90.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$64.01
$6.27
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
60 shares @ 54.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$59.97
$27.18
- YES
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
224 shares @ 68.8¢·now 19.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.60
$-109.54
- YES
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
60 shares @ 37.1¢·now 23.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.16
$-8.10
- YES
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
88 shares @ 12.2¢·now 6.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.61
$-5.11
- YES
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
105 shares @ 7.9¢·now 4.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.37
$-3.94
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?$101.94Jul 22, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$8.25Jul 18, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$45.00Jul 18, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.97Jul 16, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$29.99Jul 3, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$152.08Jul 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?$47.30Jul 1, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin not meet?$22.95Jul 1, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?$20.00Jul 1, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?$6.61Jul 1, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?$30.00Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026?$72.21Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$113.16Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$30.00Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMAnother Canada election called by June 30?$8.10Jul 1, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$30.00Jul 1, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?$3.03Jul 1, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?$15.58Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?$30.00Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMFrench election called by June 30, 2026?$33.90Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
105 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $52.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.