Vapid-Liberty
0x6decd41ba764037d823efb9dd273cb152f53cefa
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$224.48
Realised
$115.91
Win rate
56%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?
160 shares @ 67.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$157.73
$49.56
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
151 shares @ 48.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$150.94
$78.03
- YES
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?
113 shares @ 84.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$113.43
$17.45
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
137 shares @ 14.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$109.09
$89.84
- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
94 shares @ 29.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$92.46
$65.17
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
89 shares @ 74.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$87.63
$21.65
- NO
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
84 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$84.35
$29.52
- YES
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$64.99
$4.00
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
150 shares @ 37.9¢·now 34.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$51.08
$-5.77
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
43 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.77
$5.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLGemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?$0.05May 19, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?$14.87May 19, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$4.61May 19, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$4.15May 19, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?$1.85May 19, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$3.78May 19, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$10.65May 19, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$3.78May 19, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$1.09May 19, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$15.02May 19, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$15.25May 19, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$5.65May 19, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$8.86May 19, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$15.25May 19, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$3.40May 18, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?$3.90May 18, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?$0.18May 18, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$6.91May 18, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?$2.60May 17, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?$0.06May 17, 16:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 23:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 07:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".