Vapid-Liberty
0x6decd41ba764037d823efb9dd273cb152f53cefa
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$415.68
Total PnL
$-390.41
Realised
$-113.25
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
122 shares @ 65.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$122.27
$42.16
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
91 shares @ 21.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$91.19
$71.31
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
230 shares @ 30.2¢·now 34.9¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$80.46
$10.87
- YES
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
29 shares @ 19.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.00
$23.22
- YES
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
22 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.44
$13.69
- YES
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
20 shares @ 75.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.00
$4.90
- NO
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
15 shares @ 79.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.92
$3.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
12 shares @ 75.6¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.31
$2.21
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
10 shares @ 71.6¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.44
$2.43
- NO
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$0.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.89Jun 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.21Jun 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 14:21 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.27Jun 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.68Jun 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.60Jun 28, 12:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 12:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 15:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.