Loading shell…
MacroMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026

Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?

Probability

32¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$181.99

Liquidity

$3.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00Apr 25, 2026, 01:24
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 406.6h

    LOW
  • 01:24Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 407h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 04:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).