Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-anthony-constantino-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ny-21 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-anthony-constantino-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ny-21/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 23, 2026

Creator

Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

Probability

81¢

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$92.65

Liquidity

$10.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 23, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d

81¢

May 29, 2026, 04:00 UTCJun 5, 2026, 03:56 UTC

updated 03:56:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T03-56Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 81¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 23, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in th

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jun 23, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 428.1h
LOW
03:56Signal
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

Biggest hourly move: -28.5pp at Jun 2, 12:00 UTC (to 54¢).

Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves

00:00 · +27.0pp → 81¢
23:00 · +10.5pp → 81¢
21:00 · +12.0pp → 80¢
Jun 2, 21:00 UTC · +12.5pp → 78¢
Jun 2, 19:00 UTC · +10.5pp → 77¢
Jun 2, 12:00 UTC · -28.5pp → 54¢
Jun 2, 11:00 UTC · -12.0pp → 70¢
Jun 2, 09:00 UTC · -14.0pp → 68¢

updated 03:56:37 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 03:56:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 03:56:37 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 23, 2026 (2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$92.65 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

14 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket