Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 27–May 3, 2026?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$7.16
Liquidity
$2.3K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at httLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 33h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 33 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at httLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 32.8h
- 15:14SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 33h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.7pp at 17:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -14.1pp → 0¢
- 01:00 · -16.2pp → 0¢
- 18:00 · -26.1pp → 0¢
- 17:00 · -26.7pp → 0¢
- 1d ago · -26.2pp → 0¢
- 1d ago · -26.2pp → 0¢
- 1d ago · -26.2pp → 0¢
- 1d ago · -25.7pp → 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week. The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released. Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
Alerts
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