Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-6.5pp
24h Vol
$66.66
Liquidity
$525.81
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 70h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $526 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 70 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: twitch.tv
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 8, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 70.0h
- 02:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 70h.
Price movement
-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at 14:00 (to 22¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -5.0pp → 9¢
- 23:00 · -5.0pp → 9¢
- 22:00 · -5.0pp → 9¢
- 14:00 · +7.0pp → 22¢
- 04:00 · +5.5pp → 18¢
- Jun 3, 10:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 19¢
- Jun 3, 04:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 20¢
- Jun 3, 02:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player participating in an official match at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 visibly breaks equipment during or immediately following that match by June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." "Breaks equipment" means a player's actions visibly damage, crack, snap, shatter, or otherwise render an item unusable or clearly broken. Examples of qualifying items include a mouse, keyboard, monitor, desk, or chair. Mere striking, slamming, or knocking over equipment without visible breakage will not qualify. Only actions taken by a player during live match play, or immediately after the conclusion of that player's official match while still at the match setup or on the official broadcast, will count. Damage occurring before a match, outside the official match area, during practice, backstage, or away from the broadcasted match environment will not qualify. This market concerns only players participating in official IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 matches. Actions by coaches, staff, referees, audience members, or other non-players will not qualify. If IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if no official match of the tournament is completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the official ESL CS broadcast, including the ESL CS livestream on Twitch (https://www.twitch.tv/eslcs). Only video from the official ESL CS broadcast/stream will qualify.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
iemReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "iem" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will any player break a device during IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:02:55 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -5.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 8, 2026 (2026-06-08T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$66.66 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $362.74. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $525.81. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.