Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$32.57
Liquidity
$182.13
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:33SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 18h ago
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: -19.0pp at 12:00 (to 28¢).
Show all 3 hour-by-hour ticks
- 15:00 · -19.0pp → 28¢
- 14:00 · -18.5pp → 28¢
- 12:00 · -19.0pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person is ejected or removed against their will from the location of the 2026 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, currently scheduled for April 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Removal or ejection consists of a person being ordered to leave, or physically removed from the location of the 2026 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner. If no WHCA Dinner takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.