Spirited-Initialise
0x49c5fa54f0fa1b2c194b13b63f0371dc0b50b169
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$206.78
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$7.92
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
203 shares @ 59.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$92.52
$-27.45
- NO
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
73 shares @ 41.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.29
$33.29
- NO
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
29 shares @ 40.8¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$16.98
$5.33
- NO
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026?
8 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.87
$4.09
- CEJUDO
Real American Freestyle: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo
13 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$6.61
$-0.26
- YES
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?
7 shares @ 58.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.83
$-0.44
- NO
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$3.05
$0.10
- YES
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
38 shares @ 28.3¢·now 7.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.73
$-8.07
- NO
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?
10 shares @ 54.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.46
$-2.74
- YES
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$2.34
$1.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$161.12Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.