Will anyone propose at the Met Gala?
Probability
10¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$409.87
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 198h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 197.6h
- 18:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 198h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is currently scheduled for May 4, 2026 in New York City. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any attendee of the 2026 Met Gala proposes to any other attendee during the event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Proposals occurring at afterparties or secondary events which are not part of the Gala will not be considered. If the Met Gala is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be photos or video of the proposal, official statements from either the proposing party or the party being proposed to, or their legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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