0xfa394a598dbf573202a8286b45f512c7a383977f
0xfa394a598dbf573202a8286b45f512c7a383977f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$33.1K
Total PnL
$9.7K
Realised
$7.1K
Win rate
96%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
6204 shares @ 84.7¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$330.86
- YES
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
3329 shares @ 77.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$414.38
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
2977 shares @ 70.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.6K
$508.41
- NO
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
2151 shares @ 88.8¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$157.75
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
1595 shares @ 83.1¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$164.33
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1823 shares @ 75.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$22.59
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1289 shares @ 86.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$51.78
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
7961 shares @ 7.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$995.19
$398.58
- NO
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
925 shares @ 84.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$864.86
$84.51
- NO
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
814 shares @ 71.1¢·now 93.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2028$759.72
$181.37
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?$47.93Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$106.00Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$99.64Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$13.49Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$111.64Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$220.31Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$135.00Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$177.08Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$50.00Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?$8.07Jul 28, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?$16.80Jul 28, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$3.45Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.03Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.04Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.05Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.01Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?$91.17Jul 28, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.13Jul 28, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$4.13Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$10.00Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
79 closed markets, 96% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $41.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.