Innocent-Stain
0xd7a6b6bde3240cfee2aa888b425f01447103bfc7
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$817.04
Total PnL
$-118.94
Realised
$5.13
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
458 shares @ 68.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$425.85
$112.38
- NO
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
391 shares @ 64.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$162.21
$-88.60
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
850 shares @ 13.1¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.10
$-54.90
- NO
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
132 shares @ 75.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.64
$-46.36
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.49
$-5.51
- YES
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?
196 shares @ 20.2¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$31.34
$-8.24
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 73.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.04
$4.04
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
1582 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.45
$10.28
- YES
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
50 shares @ 40.5¢·now 24.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.07
$-8.28
- YES
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 26.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.37
$-1.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$11.44Jun 21, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$100.98Jun 20, 17:31 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by June 30?$112.96Jun 20, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$3.00May 26, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$3.07May 24, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$34.00May 20, 12:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?$33.70May 20, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$29.00May 20, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLGreta Thunberg arrested by June 30?$6.61May 2, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$22.00Apr 15, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$12.00Apr 1, 20:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.00Mar 27, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$0.00Mar 27, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$0.00Mar 27, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$0.00Mar 27, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$6.37Mar 27, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$8.57Mar 27, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$4.40Mar 27, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$1.87Mar 27, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$3.80Mar 27, 12:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $10.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 15:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 19:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.