Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+0.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 345h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 344.7h
- 15:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 345h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).