Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-1.8pp
24h Vol
$159.09
Liquidity
$15.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 285.0h
- 09:02SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 285h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 10¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 10¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 10¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 9¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 9¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 10¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 10¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 9¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 10¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 11¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 11¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.4pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.4pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Newham mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newham as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Newham Council.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).