Will Ariana Grande feature The Weeknd on Petal?
Probability
73¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$43.65
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 73¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 45.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2066.6h
- 21:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.
Biggest hourly move: +25.0pp at 3d ago (to 75¢).
Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -23.5pp → 51¢
- 11:00 · -23.5pp → 51¢
- 1d ago · +18.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +16.0pp → 75¢
- 2d ago · +15.5pp → 75¢
- 2d ago · +16.0pp → 73¢
- 3d ago · +25.0pp → 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Ariana Grande's album "Petal". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.