Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 34¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 440h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $10.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.