What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Astralis win IEM Atlanta 2026?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 04:13:33 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$29.36 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $29.36. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $14.7K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-astralis-win-iem-atlanta-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-astralis-win-iem-atlanta-2026/markdown.

SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 17, 2026

Creator

Will Astralis win IEM Atlanta 2026?

Probability

5¢

-1.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$29.36

Liquidity

$14.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 17, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
pro.eslgaming.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 5, 2026, 16:00May 6, 2026, 04:13

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T04-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $14.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 17, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
pro.eslgaming.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 259.8h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Atlanta 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for May 11th - May 17th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, ESL (https://pro.eslgaming.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/2026/Atlanta) may also be used.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

8 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket