SportsExpires Jun 21, 2026
Creator

Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?

Probability

9¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$201.00

Liquidity

$1.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
pro.eslgaming.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-26.5pp 7d
1007550250
10¢
May 21, 2026, 15:00 UTCMay 28, 2026, 14:11 UTC
updated 14:11:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-28T14-11Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 21, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 561.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -28.0pp at 11:00 (to 9¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • 14:00 · -28.0pp → 9¢
  • 12:00 · -28.0pp → 9¢
  • 11:00 · -28.0pp → 9¢
  • 02:00 · -27.5pp → 10¢
  • 00:00 · -27.5pp → 10¢
  • May 27, 12:00 UTC · -27.5pp → 9¢
  • May 27, 09:00 UTC · -27.5pp → 9¢
  • May 27, 03:00 UTC · -27.5pp → 10¢
updated 14:11:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:11:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventIEM Cologne 2026: Qualify to Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for the Playoffs of IEM Cologne 2026, scheduled to take place from June 2 to June 21, 2026. Ties in standings will be broken according to the official ESL rules. If the IEM Cologne 2026 is canceled, postponed, or if the official list of IEM Cologne 2026 Playoffs participants is not published before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the ESL website (https://pro.eslgaming.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/2026/Cologne) may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

iem

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "iem" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?"?

As of Thu, 28 May 2026 14:11:40 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -26.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 21, 2026 (2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$201.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $201.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

3 wallets
Open on Polymarket