CryptoExpires Jun 1, 2026
Creator

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

Probability

27¢

1h

+9.7pp

24h

+18.1pp

24h Vol

$345.9K

Liquidity

$36.9K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.9pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 28, 2026, 15:41 UTC
updated 15:42:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-28T15-42Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 18pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; +9.7pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 9.4× turnover

    $345.9k traded against $36.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 18.1pp in 24h with 9.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 22¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 1, 04:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 84.3h

    LOW
  • 15:42Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 18.1pp in 24h with 9.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+18.1pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: -21.6pp at May 25, 23:00 UTC (to 5¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · +15.2pp → 21¢
  • 09:00 · +15.5pp → 20¢
  • 06:00 · +21.5pp → 25¢
  • 05:00 · +20.9pp → 24¢
  • May 26, 00:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 5¢
  • May 25, 23:00 UTC · -21.6pp → 5¢
  • May 25, 21:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 5¢
  • May 25, 20:00 UTC · -21.3pp → 4¢
updated 15:42:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:42:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWhat price will Bitcoin hit in May?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?"?

As of Thu, 28 May 2026 15:42:03 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +18.1pp in the last 24 hours, +9.7pp in the last hour, and +16.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$345.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.2M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $36.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket