Swift-Lightning
0x09e3835d39e097ec0011824fbf647ff032a748ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$103.4K
Total PnL
$-29.8K
Realised
$3.3K
Win rate
68%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
29227 shares @ 80.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$25.6K
$2.1K
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
13895 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.1K
$1.7K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11120 shares @ 83.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.3K
$1.0K
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
8113 shares @ 64.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$7.5K
$2.3K
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
6110 shares @ 95.1¢·now 97.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.0K
$161.32
- NO
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
7107 shares @ 54.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.9K
$2.1K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
5643 shares @ 83.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.1K
$349.94
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
4963 shares @ 61.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.6K
$1.6K
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3493 shares @ 90.9¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.4K
$183.19
- NO
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
2992 shares @ 73.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$561.36
Recent activity
- YIELD$5.58Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.60Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.61Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.61Aug 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.60Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.60Aug 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$2.38Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- YIELD$5.58Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.57Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.55Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$5.55Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.55Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.53Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.51Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.16Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $424.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 21:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.