Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-black-phone-2-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-154 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-black-phone-2-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-154/markdown.

EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026

Creator

Will "Black Phone 2" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Probability

9¢

-4.4pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$526.46

Liquidity

$1.5K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (16.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

8¢

May 13, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 21:49 UTC

updated 21:49:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T21-49Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 16.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (16.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

May 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 98.2h
LOW
21:49Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

updated 21:49:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 21:49:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Black Phone 2" be the top global Netflix movie this week?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 21:49:11 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -4.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$526.46 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $526.46. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 16.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket